![]() Under this projection, one-third of the global population will be living in cities with at least half a million inhabitants by the end of the decade. In 2018, according to the United Nations, an estimated 55 percent of the world’s population-over 4 billion people-lived in urban areas that number is projected to increase to 60 percent by 2030. There is no separating warfare from the environment where people live, which is increasingly in urban spaces. Perhaps Russian military planners should have paid closer attention to the various wars of recent decades in order to avoid the predicament they are currently in-one resembling the conditions of 1916, albeit with the technologies and demographics of the 21st century. The main implication for these changes might be to make war more a part of complex ongoing negotiations for relative advantage between great powers and their supporting blocs. Modest war objectives, including limited surprise attacks that turn the tactical defense to the advantage of the aggressor, might still prove useful. That said, war is unlikely to be entirely without utility, despite the presence of ingredients for stalemate and indecisiveness. These changes might lead nations to reconsider the relative utility of war. While limited warfare is nothing new, these emerging changes to warfare run counter to some prevailing narratives about contemporary and future warfare, including rapid single campaigns, grand fait accompli and high-tech, knock-out blows culminating in decisive victory. The implications for each of these features combine to suggest that we are entering a new age of indecisive warfare, akin to that of the era of Frederick the Great and the Duke of Marlborough, in which only limited war objectives are possible. The intensity of the past year in Ukraine, combined with the events of smaller wars over the past several decades, has revealed six major emerging features of warfare: (1) warfare is taking place among bigger and denser populations (2) populations resist occupation at least as vigorously as at any time in the past, even when faced with a stronger and more advanced adversary (3) there is greater restraint in the use of force, especially in the West (4) the costs of maintaining armed forces and waging war have become oppressive (5) reconnaissance strike complexes-the combination of far-reaching sensors and long-range precision weapons-has made movement and maneuver especially deadly and (6) there seems to be a pronounced advantage to the defender, particularly if the defender possesses advanced reconnaissance strike capabilities. While a decisive victory has proven elusive on the battlefield in Ukraine, the war has not prevented the world’s militaries from drawing lessons about the changing character of warfare. Over a year later, however, the war continues-with little end in sight. Given the brazenness and disjointed nature of the invasion, the Russian high command surely assumed a fait accompli, much like they experienced in Crimea in 2014. On 24 February 2022, massive Russian formations crossed the Russia-Ukraine border along multiple axes with the intent of a rapid victory. They can be used to achieve limited war objectives against an unprepared adversary and for deterrence by denial. Armed forces will still be useful in an age of indecisive warfare.These emerging features of warfare suggest we are entering a new age of indecisive warfare characterized by stalemate, close-quarter fighting and limited war aims-despite advancements in technology.The war in Ukraine and the past several decades of war have revealed six major emerging features of warfare: (1) warfare is taking place among bigger and denser populations (2) populations resist occupation even when faced with a stronger adversary (3) there is greater restraint in the use of force (4) there is a high cost of maintaining armed forces and waging war (5) reconnaissance strike complexes have made movement and maneuver especially deadly and (6) there is a pronounced advantage to the defender.Landpower Essay 23-2, April 2023 In Brief Smith, Australian Army, & MAJ Ben Flores, USA AUSA Volunteer Family of the Year Awardīy MAJGEN Christopher R.Letters to Congress & the Administration.
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